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Quant: Bitcoin Indicators Now Look Similar To Q4 2020, Big Move Ahead?

Quant says some Bitcoin indicators show the same trend as in during Q4 2020, suggesting that BTC could make a similar move up.

Bitcoin Netflow And Stablecoins Supply Ratio Trends Look Similar To Q4 2020

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, two BTC indicators: the netflow and the stablecoins supply ratio, are both trending similarly to how they did during the last quarter of 2020.

The Bitcoin netflow indicator shows the net number of coins entering or exiting exchanges. Its value is calculated by taking the difference between the outflows and the inflows.

When the metric observes positive values, it means exchanges are experiencing more inflows than the outflows, and so more investors have started sending their BTC to exchanges for selling purposes.

Similarly, negative values imply just the opposite; investors are withdrawing their Bitcoin from exchanges either to hodl in personal wallets or to sell them through OTC deals.

The other metric of relevance is the stablecoins supply ratio, which is defined as the market cap of BTC divided by the market cap of all stablecoins.

When the indicator’s values are on the lower end, it means there is an abundance of stablecoins supply in the market. High supplies can imply a potentially bullish sentiment among the market as investors use these coins for picking up other crypto like BTC.

Related Reading | China’s Ban On Crypto-Assets Forces Huobi Mining Pool To Rotate 100k Bitcoin

On the other hand, higher values of the ratio indicate a low supply of stablecoins, which implies a lack of buying pressure in the market. This could lead to a potentially bearish trend or sideways movement for BTC.

Now, here is a chart showing the trend of these two Bitcoin indicators vs the price:

The similarity between Q4 2020 and the current period | Source: CryptoQuant

As the above chart shows, the netflows seem to have been negative for a while now and the stablecoins supply ratio is also assuming low values.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Bearish Signal: On-Chain Data Shows Whales Have Started Selling

This trend looks to be similar to how it was during Q4 2020. What followed it was a big bull rally, and so the quant believes we may see BTC blow up similarly soon.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $43k, down 2% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 9% in value.

Over the last few days, BTC has only shown sideways movement as the crypto fails to make a move above $45k. The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days:

BTC’s price continues to consolidate between the $40k and $45k levels | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from CryptoQuant.com, TradingView.com

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CryptoCurrencyAUDChange 1hChange 24hChange 7d
Bitcoin80,830 0.42 % 3.59 % 5.72 %
Ethereum5,561.2 0.10 % 1.75 % 7.73 %
Binance Coin640.88 0.24 % 1.40 % 1.29 %
Tether1.330 0.05 % 0.03 % 0.03 %
Cardano2.840 0.88 % 1.47 % 1.14 %
Solana268.43 1.02 % 3.94 % 29.17 %
XRP1.490 0.71 % 0.02 % 2.24 %
Polkadot59.25 1.08 % 0.82 % 7.64 %
Dogecoin0.3436 0.62 % 2.69 % 4.87 %
USD Coin1.330 0.14 % 0.14 % 0.37 %

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